Behavior as a Result of Adaptation

Hi Guys,

Well this week we’re talking about risky behavior as a result of adaptation. I came across an article in the New Yorker that interviewed Richard Epstein, a professor at New York University School of Law. He put forth a thesis that we have greatly overreacted to the COVID-19 pandemic and when all is said and done, the loss of life will have been greatly exaggerated. What was important to me was that this thesis was said to be floated around the White House and the article speculates was a deciding factor in President Trumps decision to initially downplay COVID-19, in many cases against the advice of his medical advisers.

Whether the President succumbed to his own confirmation bias is yet to be determined, but the dichotomy between the Federal response and our State response by Governor Cuomo et al. has been quite striking.

When reading the article, there was mention initially of adaptation. I was under the assumption that the topic was in reference to how viruses adapt to different treatments, so I wasn’t reading it with this week’s assignment in mind. But as I got further into the interview, Mr. Epstein was indeed talking about human adaptation to the new threat.

In the interview Epstein comments, “And, in my view, adaptation is a co-evolutionary process in which things change, not only in human behavior but also change in genetic viral behavior. So, on the human side, once you see that these things are really going to happen in this particular form, people take steps to avoid contact.”

He also made comments that immediate government response is appropriate for immediate threats such as fires, but not for crises lasting several months.

“I’m saying in effect, by this particular point—this is not the medical side—is after you start declaring emergencies you have time for reflection and adaptation and modification, which you don’t have in a fire case.”

I suppose what I’m understanding is that the overreaction by the government is unnecessary because people will adapt to the current circumstances and move on with their lives. I suppose when thinking about this for a while, I think of the people in Israel, where the constant threat of terrorism looms large and yet they go about their everyday lives.

“In Israel, ordinary citizens, security officials and experts feel they have seen it all and say they have adapted to a perennial, if ever-changing, threat. They speak of constantly staying alert, exercising caution and growing accustomed to what some may find to be intrusive levels of security, but essentially carrying on. (Kershner & Glanz, 2016)”

I can understand the thought process about going on with our lives with heightened sensitivity of our surroundings. After 9/11, we were all on pins and needles in the immediate days afterwards, but eventually we moved on with our lives with perceptual diligence as part of our new permanent repertoire. That said, I for one am more comfortable with Governor Cuomo’s response than President Trump’s, but who knows. Perhaps I’ll look back and say, boy, the Governor sure overreacted and The President was correct. All I can say is that living in the here and now of it, in a state that has been hit especially hard by the virus, I err towards the Governors strategy.

Perhaps we are just trying to find the right balance between decision and experience utility (Loewenstein & Ubel, 2008). Being responsible for one’s own actions while being well informed of the consequences.

Time will tell.

Be safe everyone and remember to wash your hands.

Joseph S. Kalinowski, CFA

Chotiner, I. (2020, March 30). The Contrarian Coronavirus Theory That Informed the Trump Administration. Retrieved March 31, 2020, from https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/the-contrarian-coronavirus-theory-that-informed-the-trump-administration (Links to an external site.)

Kershner, I., & Glanz, J. (2016, July 18). To France From Israel: Lessons on Living With Terror. Retrieved March 31, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/19/world/middleeast/to-france-from-israel-lessons-on-living-with-terror.html (Links to an external site.)

Loewenstein, G., & Ubel, P. A. (2008, January 7). Hedonic adaptation and the role of decision and experience utility in public policy. Retrieved March 31, 2020, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0047272708000066